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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$1,289,954.32 Vol. · last 24 hours
- October 22$708,575.47 Vol.
- October 24$275,248.91 Vol.
- October 31$194,028.02 Vol.
- October 28$51,144.37 Vol.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike,…
- October 22
- October 24
- October 31
- October 28
Ethereum above ___ on October 22?
$669,898.74 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for…
- 2,400
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
$191,360.44 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall"…
- Moonshot
- Alibaba
- Anthropic
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$500,959.91 Vol. · last 24 hours
- October 31$375,123.52 Vol.
- December 31$107,201.84 Vol.
- November 15$12,297.14 Vol.
- November 30$6,337.41 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of…
- October 31
- December 31
- November 15
- November 30
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
$229,436.53 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made…
- December 31, 2027
- December 31, 2028
- December 31, 2029
Fed Decision in October?
$3,221,656.70 Vol. · last 24 hours
- No change$1,325,083.00 Vol.
- 25 bps increase$785,717.93 Vol.
- 50+ bps increase$591,891.40 Vol.
- 25 bps decrease$306,508.57 Vol.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target…
- No change
- 25 bps increase
- 50+ bps increase
- 25 bps decrease
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$1,968.66 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall"…
- Meta
- DeepSeek
- Alibaba
- Microsoft
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$1,211.00 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.…
- ↑6k
































