Market overview
Settlement rules, order-book depth and execution cost for every Polymarket market we publish.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
$559,139 Vol. · last 24 hours
- September 30$441,276 Vol.——
- October 31$83,067 Vol.——
- December 31$27,199 Vol.——
- November 30$7,596 Vol.——
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike,…
- September 30—
- October 31—
- December 31—
- November 30—
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
$662,601 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to…
- ↓ 77,500—
- ↓ 75,000—
- ↑ 90,000—
- ↑ 92,500—
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
$31,324 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.…
- 60%+—
- 45%+—
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$152,368 Vol. · last 24 hours
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written…
- September 30—
- October 31—
- December 31—
- November 30—
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
$82,462 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑…
- ↑ $100—
- ↑ $110—
- ↑ $95—
- ↑ $105—
Fed Decision in October?
$201,467 Vol. · last 24 hours
- 25 bps increase$61,110 Vol.——
- 25 bps decrease$60,614 Vol.——
- 50+ bps decrease$59,431 Vol.——
- No change$12,744 Vol.——
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target…
- 25 bps increase—
- 25 bps decrease—
- 50+ bps decrease—
- No change—
Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
$1,108 Vol. · last 24 hours
- Željka Cvijanović$1,108 Vol.——
- Nebojša Vukanović$0 Vol.——
- Siniša Karan$0 Vol.——
- Branko Blanuša$0 Vol.——
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika…
- Željka Cvijanović—
- Nebojša Vukanović—
- Siniša Karan—
- Branko Blanuša—
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$23,624 Vol. · last 24 hours
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026…
- 1—
- 2—
- 3—
- 4—
